The strategy card on the dashboard shows you six numbers and a badge. People stare at them for a second, pick the prettiest one, and move on. This post is the thirty-second version of how to actually read them.
Expectancy per trade
The big number at the top of the card. Expectancy is the average dollar result per trade, including losers, for a baseline contract count. A strategy with a 55% winrate and expectancy of $12 makes on average $12 per signal, after winners and losers cancel out. If expectancy is negative, the strategy loses money on average. There is no further debate to have.
Your actual expectancy will differ based on how many contracts you trade, what your fills look like, and what commissions your broker charges. The number on the card is what the research said before any of that.
Winrate
Share of closed trades that ended profitable. Winrate is the most over-weighted metric on any signals site and it is our least favorite. A strategy can have a 70% winrate and lose money (when losers are much larger than winners), or a 40% winrate and make money (when winners are much larger than losers).
Pair winrate with average R (winners sized in units of initial risk). A 55% winrate with 1.2R average says wins and losses are similar in size. A 35% winrate with 2.8R average says you lose often but win big when you do. Both can be profitable. Neither is a warning sign in isolation.
Profit factor
Gross winning dollars divided by gross losing dollars. Anything above 1.0 is net profitable before commissions. 1.3 is decent. 1.5 is robust. 2.0 is rare and deserves scrutiny because it often means a short sample or a curve-fit backtest.
Max drawdown
The largest peak-to-trough decline in the strategy's equity curve during the window, in percent. The number you see is what happened. Future drawdowns can and sometimes will exceed it. Size your position so that two back-to-back 1.5x max-drawdown events do not blow up your account. That is the math everyone wishes they had done earlier.
Signals per week
Expected signal frequency. Strategies that emit 2 signals a week are fundamentally different lifestyle commitments than strategies that emit 20. If you cannot be at your desk or configured for unattended execution when a signal fires, a high-frequency strategy is not for you regardless of its expectancy.
Minimum account size
The smallest account we think the strategy makes sense on, given contract size, expected drawdown, and commission friction. Going below the minimum is not blocked, but it greatly increases the odds that one bad week ends your run.
The 5-second read
Expectancy positive, profit factor above 1.3, max drawdown you can stomach on your account, signals per week that match your availability. If those four boxes check, read the detail drawer. If any of them fail, you do not need to.